I hope these considerations will be useful to the community! This is a fantastic breakdown of gambling and a must-read for anyone thinking of participating in these activities.
The only thing I would add is your calculation of the average cost of a gamble. Averages can be very misleading, especially as the percentage of getting what you want becomes smaller.
It would be very easy to need twice as many tries to get it though--four tries. If a drop rate is 0. As the drop rate numbers get smaller, the variation in absolute numbers gets larger and the risk of losing larger amounts of money becomes greater.
Averages cannot always be trusted as a reliable indicator for how much money you will lose for a chance at something if you have a limited budget to spend.
Another extremely important concept is that of sunk cost. Essentially, if the drop rate is 0. If you have already opened RNG boxes, with no success, then at that point, the average number of boxes you will have to open is still Just because you already opened boxes doesn't change the fact that the drop rate is 0.
Money that cannot be regained should never be used as a factor in whether or not you should continue to gamble, because it has no effect on the probability of success.
The "Average" or "Expected Value" is very misleading. It's basically what you make if you play infinitely many times, but as you mention, people may not be able to play thousands of times even if the expected value is in their favor.
My favorite example is a bet where a coin is flipped till you get tals. You lose if it's tails on the first try. Think about the average or expected wins.
You take the chances times the amounts to find the average to get:. This means if you're only going by the expected value you should pay any amount to play this game which is ridiculous!
I certainly wouldn't gamble my house for that sort of bet. I just checked sorry, 5 years since I took my statistics exam: For the mathematically inclined, the probability of getting an item with a drop rate of y after x tries is 1 - 1 - y x.
So if the drop rate is 0. I was actually looking for an equation like that prior to posting and could not find it due to not being sure what to search for.
Never gamble if you have no idea about how the game works. First gather information or wait until others gather them for you.
I believe it's a self-imposed Regressive tax. But you are very right none the less. I've heard this many of times. Also on people who want to support their local wildlife preserves.
That's what lottery revenue is used for in my area. I've always thought of gambling as just another form of entertainment - you pay to be entertained.
You will always be losing money, that money is the fee for enjoying yourself - just like with any form of entertainment. With the important side-note: I can afford it.
I know I might not get anything. But even if I get nothing, that's okay: I've accepted "nothing for something" as a possibility.
That's not how this works. The difference is that ArenaNet is running a video game business, not a casino. Spending that much and getting nothing in return is more incentive to go purchase a new game instead of playing the current one.
Different environments carry different expectations. What may be acceptable at home may not be acceptable in public. Invest the time to learn the game, develop better skills, or grind, and you will get something in return.
True, some people may just not be very good, but at least the game does not punish investment. Imagine a boss fight that just arbitrarily kills you, unavoidably, at random intervals during a fight.
I don't think players would appreciate that. This is the audience that gambling is being introduced to. Furthermore, this is an audience that can be as young as 13 years old.
Now by itself RNG is just another reward system that does in fact reward time played across a broad period of time. However, people who fail to get a rare drop in game are likely to have negative associations with their chances in that particular encounter, but the sour taste is less likely to apply to the game as a whole.
They did this activity times, got nothing, but hey, here's all these other things to do, plus it is usually possible to incrementally earn these items either by purchasing them from other players precursors or by purchasing them through tokens ascended gear.
The introduction of pristine fractal relics in particular seems to argue that ANet agrees with this perspective. On the other hand, ANet should be trying to make giving them money as positive an experience as possible.
As a business, you do not want negative associations with your revenue stream. Adding dragon coffers in-game appears to be one step toward alleviating these reactions by adding alternative methods of acquisition it certainly has made me much more forgiving of the rich dragon coffers.
Nevertheless, for these supposedly "entitled" people who want shiny weapon skins, the gamble boxes may be their only exposure to the gem store boosters and town clothing and minis not being their things.
In that market, they're still largely going to be left with the lucky, the gamblers, and the addicted. The main question is whether they consider that a sustainable and desirable base of large spenders.
Thus far, the answer appears to be yes. Also when gambling, the need you feel to keep gambling to get what you want is thanks to something called operant conditioning more on conditioning at the end of this.
If you find yourself unable to stop, take a step back and consider what you are doing. Gambling addiction are very real and very dangerous in fact, gambling addiction is now classified as a chemical addiction in the new DSM, this is due to how a person can get highly addicted to the chemicals neorepinephrine that flood your brain during the high and low stress values experienced while gambling.
If you show these signs then I would suggest taking a break from the game or doing activities outside of the gambling. If you find you cannot control yourself you may want to seek help.
Would you like to know more? Skinner about conditioning and addiction in pigeons he teaches them to gamble. If you're like me and have time to kill, you can also run a simulation to see the potential cost of achieving a goal e.
How many Unidentified dyes do you have to open to get a Celestial Dye? I am not certain this are the drop rates, I am just making assumptions based on The Wiki then we know that a Celstial dye will drop with a 0.
To Play around with different Values of p check out Wolfram Alpha. Thanks for this post. At the risk of getting into politics not too worried--this is Reddit after all , the people who spend the most money on these real life gold sinks are NOT "the people who work all day and have extra money to spend on the game" as ANet readily advertises, but rather people who don't have money to be blowing on Rich Dragon Coffers and RNG boxes.
This is all fine and dandy when you're gambling in-game pixels, but when you start charging real life currency it becomes a bit more despicable.
Give us a flat cost for seasonal items and let that be that. Maybe NCSoft has changed but I think it's mostly whatshername's fault. Guild Wars 1 didn't even allow you to buy RNG boxes in any capacity, let alone with real money.
Just think about the Whispers coffers for margonite gems or Zaishen key chests or lunar fortunes. Those all look exactly like the RNG boxes and if you dig through the old forums seemed to induce similar levels of rage.
The difference was you had to grind for them in game, and they did not allow people to throw endless amounts of real world money in pursuit of a rare drop.
Increase drop rate of taffy, make taffy the only currency at moa races, payout is only in taffy. But that would reduce gem store profits so probably wouldn't happen.
At least not until someone sells a kidney or their kid to buy more gems to convert to gold. In regards to your set-in-stone rule of gambling: Given how the cost of items on the trading post is fluid, based on the behavior of tons of players rather than on ArenaNet gaming the system, it can be possible to gamble on, for example, buying unidentified dyes, identifying them, and selling the resulting dyes for profit in the long term.
I don't know if that's the case with the current cost of unidentified dyes and the cost of rare dyes, but given the nature of their value on the Trading Post it's absolutely possible.
The case you are taking as example is in fact number 2. It's a gamble with known values. So if you have some patience you can actually calculate whether opening dyes is worth it.
I just don't have the patience About the first and second rule, I meant to apply them to gamblings like Moas and Boxes. Dyes and precursors are a bit different because you can sell back what you gain from the gamble.
With the Moas, you win money if your bird wins. This means you don't have to sell back what you gain from the gamble, you just get the money.
With Boxes, you can sell most of what you get from them, as well. It just may behoove you to hold on to them until they aren't quite as common like, after the festival.
If we could sell the weapon tickets as well, would you continue to feel like there was a significant difference between dyes and boxes?
To me, they're pretty much exactly the same thing. It's about making an informed decision, rather than a completely blind most likely awful decision.
But it does affect your choices to use the money for that or on something else. Selling back items is different because they change in price.
There is a lot of changes involved, it's not just gambling. Most stuff gained from the Boxes are worth nothing, and even if you could sell tickets you should first know the chances to check if their market value is enough to cover the costs.
Without knowing the chances you can't do that. Rather that going in blind is a poor idea and asking to lose more money, and having the general idea or perhaps even the specific knowledge of percentages and what you need to do for an average chance at success allows one to essentially calculate cost.
This is why I have no problem with rng chests. They are like a lottery and anyone who cries over their losses went into it with unrealistic expectations.
But why do we want a lottery in the game? Especially when half of the rewards or more, usually are hidden behind this lottery each new update.
I'm a recent max leveler and mostly playing solo I have 3 gold altogether.. Had 3 gold that is.. Not a single win either. Don't dwell too much on it!
Here's what my mother always used to say about gambling: Give yourself a set amount of money, and know that you're spending that much money. If you win, you win; if you lose, you lose.
You always had the intention of spending X amount of money, so it doesn't matter. For example, I'm setting myself a limit of 5 gold total to spend on the Moa races, regardless of whether I win or lose.
I'm treating it like I'm just spending 5 gold on anything else, despite the potential reward. Yeah, you call that "fun money" basically if you go to the movies, broadway show, have a nice meal etc.
If you have fun gambling you can set aside how much you'd spend to have good time and think of it like that. Same thing in gw.
If you want to pay to have fun go for it. If you think buying gems is a "thank you" to arena net for a good game and you just want to open a few boxes then go for it.
Nothing wrong with that. If you don't like rng let your dollar vote count. This is the highest risk kind of gambling, and should never be done by anyone unwilling to lose big.
High risk can be high reward. Personally, as a player, I dislike it, and this last event in particular has turned me off from the game. I really liked the skins they added so I decided I would use a lot of the gold I was saving up to buy a lot of coffers.
From what I saw on forums, drop rates for the tickets vary but is perhaps around 1 in a I used around g and bought a large amount of coffers and along with the coffers I had farmed I had a total of around I figured even if could just get 2 to 3 tickets I would be fairly happy.
However, after opening all the coffers I only had 1 ticket and a lot of useless junk to show for it. Overall, I was left feeling like I wasted most of my funds with not much to show for it.
I still want the skins but it seems like it will be impossible for me to get more than that 1. The rng barrier was too strong and left me bitter.
I have no problem gambling a little with "ingame currency". It's not "real" money after all If I gamble ingame an lose all my gold - it has no impact whatsoever with my real life economies.
I always try to remember, whenever I buy online "gacha" boxes, that while the item I'm hoping to get is virtual, the money I am pouring into it is very much physical.
It's easy to forget that when these kinds of money transactions are so simple and digital: It doesn't feel real until something jerks your hand back from the "Buy More [online currency]" button and you lean back from the computer screen with a sick feeling and think, "what am I doing?
It really makes you want to slap yourself! Self control is one of the most infuriating things, but realizing you've spent a lot of hard-earned cash on nothing, nothing, nothing is an infinitely worse feeling.
I don't agree that gambling is always a loss in GW2 - in cases where the player community sets both the cost to gamble and the value of the potential prize forging rares for precursors, opening bags for mats, etc it is very possible that these values are set such that the outcome is a net gain to the gamblers.
The chance that you will pay more for a precursor gambling with the forge versus buying it outright on the TP is slim, but those that buy the precursor from the post are paying a premium to eliminate their risk.
If you have enough capital to be able to absorb those rare instances where you take a loss on making a precursor, you will come out way ahead in the end.
In fact, outside of some of these gambling mini games like the moa racing or cowtapult, the prize money value is always set by the community and quite often reflect a RNG avoidance premium, making it a net benefit to the gambler.
This is a great analysis on gambling where there is one party controlling the cost to play and the potential prize, but gambling intelligently is a great way to get rich in GW2.
You are correct, though looking at the broader picture, this behavior is still a net loss for players as a whole. Between the people who lose money gambling without good knowledge of the forge or who have a horrific losing streak and do not have enough capital and the TP tax, the total playerbase is creating a gold sink and losing money.
Individual gamblers can always win, but they are winning by taking money from other players. The other players may consider this a fair trade to eliminate risk--there is a secondary economy set up around the gamble that, in isolation, is almost an entirely separate market--but that does not change the fact that for the entire population, gambling activities result in money lost or else are classified as an exploit and changed.
Those who hate gambling, but "need" to gamble to obtain what they want, should review their ambitions. If you eliminate the need, then the desire, then you learn that your ambition is chasing a piece of pretty electricity.
The hatred of gambling subsides since you don't need to participate in the game of loss. Sorry to go all Buddha, but I see a lot of wasted anger which could be used to enjoy the game or find another distraction which is more rewarding.
One of my goals with games is to collect things. I like to collect things through gameplay though, not gambling. Luckily, I refuse to put money in for RNG stuff or spend all my gold on gems for it I admit, even though my luck is absolute trash, I like to gamble from time to time.
But in doing so I set a goal in my head. I have X amount of gold, or gems. And I am only going to spend that much. If I don't get it, so be it.
There will be plenty of skins in the future. Also, I think that people have the idea of "More chances, grants higher chance of winning" Which is true, but I feel like too many people subconsciously see it differently.
It could be a lot of other things, but I just feel that people need to learn how to limit themselves. Like you said, more chances, grants higher chances of winning.
But it's not always obvious exactly how they increase. OR, if you buy all the boxes at once and then open them all not stopping even if you get the item you are after then you can look at it like this:.
Was busy convincing various relatives to stop playing lotteries I want that achievement and I've already lost 13 gold trying to get it, i think i went 15 in a row for 5th two nights ago.
I tried some more, lost more money, threw my hands up in the air and walked away because fuck. Where do games like blackjack fall in your eyes?
It is possible to make consistent money by counting cards. Is this still gambling to you? If so that would be cool. I made a personal pack of all the locations too.
It does appear that you missed 1 from the first event as well. The coin count could be as follows for each event. Every time I saw you here I wanted to make a joke about when the video would come out but you did it.
You made a video for the literal easiest content in the game. I did it on request so if it's easy for you doesn't mean it's easy for everyone else: I never commented on anyone elses ability at all.
Just the fact that this is literally the easiest level 80 content they have put in the game doesn't need build, gear, class knowledge, really any buttons to be pressed etc and you made a guide for it before even finishing older content that you started and didn't finish raids?
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